Avatar Domination
Avatar has become a humongous success - financially, critically, visually, and for some, spiritually(which creates cult status).
It is the highest grossing film of all time, in non-inflation adjusted dollars.
It has a aggregate rating of 82% on rottentomateos.com, which is 63% higher than Star Wars: Clone Wars
It’s the presumed winner of the academy awards Visual Effects award and the Visual Effects Awards
Then there are articles like this that show how emotionally some people have been touched by the film.
The question I am often asked about my involvement in the project is: Did you know this would happen?
Well, as I’ve shown there are many ways to qualify a movies success. I have worked on many films that have been visually impressive (eg. Perfect Storm) but failed to connect with audiences. Magnolia was a critically acclaimed film that few people watched and consequently had a low box office. Star Wars: Episode I was a huge box office winner but visually staid (losing awards to Matrix), emotionally vacuous, and only succeeded in alienated its fan base. (And I swore to abandon the series after working on the first).
Back to the question: Did I know? Yes and no. Clearly I felt it was unique or I wouldn’t have moved all the way to New Zealand to work on it.
I think I put a lot of faith in Auteur Theory, the film theory of director ownership and personal impact on a film. James Cameron’s track record was clearly not an accident and his films have always resonated with me (except for “True Lies”). Aliens is one of the few sequels that could be considered better than the original. Abyss and T2 take enormous leaps of faith in technology to accomplish hero creatures in the film. I even researched his student project called “Xenogensesis” to see what he was all about.
After looking through the enormous two bound volumes of artwork, it was clear the film would be beautiful and Weta Digital (having finished Lord of the Rings and King Kong) was the place to do it. The script and animatics showed a simple story of a turncoat becoming a hero along with some could-be cheesy romance, some clunky dialogue, and was an overlong 3 1/2 hours.
But the day I met Mr Cameron was the day I think I decided it would be a success in all ways, except possibly financially. He was intense and focused, and a perfectionist, true to his reputation. He had designed and drawn some of the characters himself, and during the meeting felt comfortable sketching what he was describing, but then switching to a technically complex subject like Fresnel effects or subsurface scattering lighting skin effects. Here was a man given control of $250 million, and not afraid to use it.
So, yes, I thought the film would be unmatched visually, a good story, and the Avatar theme of seeing through another being (essentially what film tries to accomplish) appeal to many people. I think these are the easiest things to predict.
Box office-wise did I ever expect it to break Titanic? No. I did not. It was clear the film would sell well, and make its money back, but how on earth a film ridiculed as”Dances with Smurfs” was propelled to the to the number one spot still surprises me. I remember thinking “will people really accept watching half-naked blue people wander around a jungle for three hours?”.
So…I do think successes can be predicted. I think box office flops are easier to see coming than hits. Even sequels, which people presume will always make money, don’t often hit the target. Bad movies can be diagnosed with a 3 minute preview, but you have to see the entire, completed film to know if if it is good. And good films often slip through the box office sieve (eg. Iron Giant) because of bad marketing, bad timing, or just bad luck.
To sum up, I think you can predict a filmmaker and his film, but not the fickle and fleeting mind of a filmgoer.