Some quick predictions
A co-worker and I continue to be fairly downbeat about the future of the US economy. I send him back and email with my prediction the next 12 months will take.
Rates will be 5.50% by August.
Home sales continue to slide.
Home prices retrace a year in Aug (so Aug 2006 = Aug 2004)
Rents start slowly climbing as prices drop.
Inflation goes to 5% forcing the fed to raise rates by Oct to 5.75%
The yield curve inverts from July-Nov.
Long term bonds start to get bid up to 7% by January.
The US dollar drops 15% from July to july07.
Trade deficit actually start to drop, but for bad reasons - consumer spending dries up due to loan servicing.
China has less money to pour back into the US Treasuries
Falling dollar causes china to loose significant amount of money in their T-bills and they annouce a divestiture of reserves in a basket of Euro/yen/dollar products.